Apocalypse

15-card booster (11 commons · 3 uncommons · 1 rare) · 15 cards · estimated average value $10.14

Pack prices compared with estimated typical and average contents value
Pack	Pack price	Typical (median)	Average	Average − price	Average / price
Apocalypse · Booster	$40.21 ↗	$5.10	$10.14	−$30.07	25%

Typical value (median)$5.10

Average value$10.14

Middle 80% of simulated packs$2.62 – $22.82

Estimated chance of contents worth at least$2.00 100%$5.00 51%$10.00 25%$20.00 13%$50.00 <1%

Half of simulated packs are worth less than the median. These are gross singles values, before fees and shipping. The model omits some bonus cards and uses approximate slot odds.

Pack contents, odds, and calculation details

Where the value sits

Slot	Odds	×	EV
Common	common	10	$1.77
Common / foil	common 75% · foil common 18% · foil uncommon 5% · foil rare / mythic 2%	1	$2.38
Uncommon	uncommon	3	$1.44
Rare	rare / mythic	1	$4.56

A foil of any rarity replaces a common in about 1 pack in 4.
Pool: 143 booster printings; 143 priced on TCGplayer, 0 without a quote (counted as zero). common 55/55 · uncommon 44/44 · rare 44/44
Estimated average value under this model: $10.14. The distribution comes from 20000 simulated packs. Their mean is $9.79 ± $0.11.

Cards in the Pack

Every card a pack can hold, with the share of the pack value it carries. Chance is the expected number of copies in one pack, added up over every slot that can hold the card. EV is price times chance; the column adds up to the pack value.

Cards in one booster pack of Apocalypse, with price, chance per pack, and share of the pack value
#	Card	R	Price	Chance per pack	EV
1	Llanowar Wastes	R	$29.64	2.27%	$0.67
2	Yavimaya Coast	R	$28.80	2.27%	$0.65
3	Shivan Reef	R	$27.15	2.27%	$0.62
4	Phyrexian Arena	R	$19.37	2.27%	$0.44
5	Pernicious Deed	R	$16.55	2.27%	$0.38
6	Caves of Koilos	R	$16.00	2.27%	$0.36
7	Goblin Ringleader	U	$4.53	6.82%	$0.31
8	Standard Bearer	C	$1.57	19.5%	$0.31
9	Vindicate	R	$12.12	2.27%	$0.28
10	Battlefield Forge	R	$10.60	2.27%	$0.24
11	Fire // Ice	U	$3.44	6.82%	$0.23
12	Dragon Arch	U	$2.43	6.82%	$0.17
13	Yavimaya Coast foil	R	$395.19	0.0406%	$0.16
14	Pernicious Deed foil	R	$317.49	0.0406%	$0.13
15	Lightning Angel	R	$5.41	2.27%	$0.12
16	Cromat	R	$5.39	2.27%	$0.12
17	Llanowar Wastes foil	R	$296.85	0.0406%	$0.12
18	Urborg Elf foil	C	$31.07	0.325%	$0.10
19	Goblin Ringleader foil	U	$80.90	0.122%	$0.10
20	Shivan Reef foil	R	$231.18	0.0406%	$0.09
21	Life // Death	U	$1.26	6.82%	$0.09
22	Bloodfire Dwarf foil	C	$26.02	0.325%	$0.08
23	Urborg Elf	C	$0.40	19.5%	$0.08
24	Desolation Angel	R	$3.44	2.27%	$0.08
25	Battlefield Forge foil	R	$189.97	0.0406%	$0.08
26	Phyrexian Arena foil	R	$183.13	0.0406%	$0.07
27	Shield of Duty and Reason	C	$0.38	19.5%	$0.07
28	Fire // Ice foil	U	$60.00	0.122%	$0.07
29	Spiritmonger	R	$3.00	2.27%	$0.07
30	Vindicate foil	R	$163.20	0.0406%	$0.07
31	Gerrard's Verdict	U	$0.93	6.82%	$0.06
32	Cromat foil	R	$155.59	0.0406%	$0.06
33	Unnatural Selection	R	$2.67	2.27%	$0.06
34	Bloodfire Dwarf	C	$0.30	19.5%	$0.06
35	Whirlpool Rider	C	$0.28	19.5%	$0.05
36	Squee's Revenge	U	$0.79	6.82%	$0.05
37	Whirlpool Warrior	R	$2.32	2.27%	$0.05
38	Standard Bearer foil	C	$16.02	0.325%	$0.05
39	Caves of Koilos foil	R	$123.66	0.0406%	$0.05
40	Gerrard's Verdict foil	U	$40.27	0.122%	$0.05
41	Soul Link	C	$0.25	19.5%	$0.05
42	Squee's Embrace	C	$0.25	19.5%	$0.05
43	Fervent Charge	R	$2.07	2.27%	$0.05
44	Life // Death foil	U	$37.26	0.122%	$0.05
45	Razorfin Hunter	C	$0.23	19.5%	$0.04
46	Reef Shaman	C	$0.23	19.5%	$0.04
47	Shimmering Mirage	C	$0.23	19.5%	$0.04
48	Llanowar Dead	C	$0.21	19.5%	$0.04
49	Phyrexian Rager	C	$0.21	19.5%	$0.04
50	Lay of the Land	C	$0.20	19.5%	$0.04
51	Mournful Zombie	C	$0.20	19.5%	$0.04
52	Mystic Snake	R	$1.72	2.27%	$0.04
53	Wild Research	R	$1.70	2.27%	$0.04
54	Bloodfire Infusion	C	$0.19	19.5%	$0.04
55	Consume Strength	C	$0.19	19.5%	$0.04
56	Gaea's Skyfolk	C	$0.19	19.5%	$0.04
57	Quicksilver Dagger	C	$0.18	19.5%	$0.04
58	Phyrexian Rager foil	C	$10.25	0.325%	$0.03
59	Jilt	C	$0.17	19.5%	$0.03
60	Mystic Snake foil	R	$80.00	0.0406%	$0.03
61	Lightning Angel foil	R	$79.99	0.0406%	$0.03
62	Goblin Legionnaire	C	$0.16	19.5%	$0.03
63	Temporal Spring	C	$0.16	19.5%	$0.03
64	Gaea's Skyfolk foil	C	$9.56	0.325%	$0.03
65	Divine Light	C	$0.15	19.5%	$0.03
66	Helionaut	C	$0.15	19.5%	$0.03
67	Coalition Honor Guard	C	$0.14	19.5%	$0.03
68	Index	C	$0.14	19.5%	$0.03
69	Last Caress	C	$0.14	19.5%	$0.03
70	Mind Extraction	C	$0.14	19.5%	$0.03
71	Orim's Thunder	C	$0.14	19.5%	$0.03
72	Quagmire Druid	C	$0.14	19.5%	$0.03
73	Zombie Boa	C	$0.14	19.5%	$0.03
74	Shield of Duty and Reason foil	C	$8.12	0.325%	$0.03
75	Whirlpool Rider foil	C	$7.96	0.325%	$0.03
76	Bog Gnarr	C	$0.13	19.5%	$0.03
77	Dwarven Landslide	C	$0.13	19.5%	$0.03
78	Jaded Response	C	$0.13	19.5%	$0.03
79	Smash	C	$0.13	19.5%	$0.03
80	Reef Shaman foil	C	$7.30	0.325%	$0.02
81	Ceta Disciple	C	$0.12	19.5%	$0.02
82	Razorfin Hunter foil	C	$7.21	0.325%	$0.02
83	Spiritmonger foil	R	$57.65	0.0406%	$0.02
84	Whirlpool Drake	U	$0.34	6.82%	$0.02
85	Temporal Spring foil	C	$7.03	0.325%	$0.02
86	Suppress	U	$0.33	6.82%	$0.02
87	Guided Passage	R	$0.98	2.27%	$0.02
88	Putrid Warrior	C	$0.11	19.5%	$0.02
89	Tranquil Path	C	$0.11	19.5%	$0.02
90	Shimmering Mirage foil	C	$6.30	0.325%	$0.02
91	Haunted Angel	U	$0.30	6.82%	$0.02
92	Soul Link foil	C	$6.28	0.325%	$0.02
93	Ebony Treefolk	U	$0.29	6.82%	$0.02
94	Necra Disciple	C	$0.10	19.5%	$0.02
95	Strength of Night	C	$0.10	19.5%	$0.02
96	Tahngarth's Glare	C	$0.10	19.5%	$0.02
97	Wild Research foil	R	$48.13	0.0406%	$0.02
98	Desolation Angel foil	R	$47.96	0.0406%	$0.02
99	Powerstone Minefield foil	R	$47.71	0.0406%	$0.02
100	Dragon Arch foil	U	$15.72	0.122%	$0.02
101	Tidal Courier	U	$0.28	6.82%	$0.02
102	Squee's Embrace foil	C	$5.68	0.325%	$0.02
103	Llanowar Dead foil	C	$5.64	0.325%	$0.02
104	Haunted Angel foil	U	$15.00	0.122%	$0.02
105	Evasive Action foil	U	$14.99	0.122%	$0.02
106	Legacy Weapon	R	$0.78	2.27%	$0.02
107	Evasive Action	U	$0.26	6.82%	$0.02
108	Sylvan Messenger	U	$0.26	6.82%	$0.02
109	Ana Disciple	C	$0.09	19.5%	$0.02
110	Penumbra Bobcat	C	$0.09	19.5%	$0.02
111	Raka Disciple	C	$0.09	19.5%	$0.02
112	Tundra Kavu	C	$0.09	19.5%	$0.02
113	Urborg Uprising	C	$0.09	19.5%	$0.02
114	Coalition Flag	U	$0.25	6.82%	$0.02
115	Vodalian Mystic	U	$0.25	6.82%	$0.02
116	Ice Cave	R	$0.74	2.27%	$0.02
117	Prophetic Bolt	R	$0.74	2.27%	$0.02
118	Ice Cave foil	R	$40.54	0.0406%	$0.02
119	Brass Herald	U	$0.24	6.82%	$0.02
120	Dega Sanctuary	U	$0.24	6.82%	$0.02
121	Gaea's Balance	U	$0.24	6.82%	$0.02
122	Ceta Sanctuary	U	$0.23	6.82%	$0.02
123	Minotaur Illusionist	U	$0.23	6.82%	$0.02
124	Angelfire Crusader	C	$0.08	19.5%	$0.02
125	Dead Ringers	C	$0.08	19.5%	$0.02
126	Penumbra Wurm	R	$0.67	2.27%	$0.02
127	Aether Mutation	U	$0.22	6.82%	$0.02
128	Phyrexian Gargantua	U	$0.22	6.82%	$0.02
129	Unnatural Selection foil	R	$36.56	0.0406%	$0.01
130	Ana Sanctuary	U	$0.21	6.82%	$0.01
131	Death Mutation	U	$0.21	6.82%	$0.01
132	Enlistment Officer	U	$0.21	6.82%	$0.01
133	Order // Chaos	U	$0.21	6.82%	$0.01
134	Bloodfire Colossus	R	$0.62	2.27%	$0.01
135	Glade Gnarr	C	$0.07	19.5%	$0.01
136	Kavu Glider	C	$0.07	19.5%	$0.01
137	Savage Gorilla	C	$0.07	19.5%	$0.01
138	Diversionary Tactics	U	$0.20	6.82%	$0.01
139	Gerrard Capashen foil	R	$32.77	0.0406%	$0.01
140	Legacy Weapon foil	R	$32.19	0.0406%	$0.01
141	Coalition Honor Guard foil	C	$4.00	0.325%	$0.01
142	Death Grasp	R	$0.53	2.27%	$0.01
143	Symbiotic Deployment	R	$0.53	2.27%	$0.01
144	Squee's Revenge foil	U	$9.73	0.122%	$0.01
145	Coastal Drake	C	$0.06	19.5%	$0.01
146	Dega Disciple	C	$0.06	19.5%	$0.01
147	Minotaur Tactician	C	$0.06	19.5%	$0.01
148	Kavu Howler	U	$0.17	6.82%	$0.01
149	Gerrard Capashen	R	$0.50	2.27%	$0.01
150	Overgrown Estate	R	$0.49	2.27%	$0.01
151	Whirlpool Warrior foil	R	$27.35	0.0406%	$0.01
152	Spectral Lynx	R	$0.48	2.27%	$0.01
153	Captain's Maneuver	U	$0.16	6.82%	$0.01
154	Dwarven Patrol	U	$0.16	6.82%	$0.01
155	Grave Defiler	U	$0.16	6.82%	$0.01
156	Illusion // Reality	U	$0.16	6.82%	$0.01
157	Jungle Barrier	U	$0.16	6.82%	$0.01
158	Penumbra Kavu	U	$0.16	6.82%	$0.01
159	Raka Sanctuary	U	$0.16	6.82%	$0.01
160	Guided Passage foil	R	$26.67	0.0406%	$0.01
161	Fervent Charge foil	R	$25.98	0.0406%	$0.01
162	Powerstone Minefield	R	$0.45	2.27%	$0.01
163	Bloodfire Kavu	U	$0.15	6.82%	$0.01
164	Dodecapod	U	$0.15	6.82%	$0.01
165	Foul Presence	U	$0.15	6.82%	$0.01
166	Night // Day	U	$0.15	6.82%	$0.01
167	Jaded Response foil	C	$3.03	0.325%	$0.01
168	Living Airship	C	$0.05	19.5%	$0.01
169	Manacles of Decay	C	$0.05	19.5%	$0.01
170	Necravolver	R	$0.43	2.27%	$0.01
171	Goblin Trenches	R	$0.42	2.27%	$0.01
172	Emblazoned Golem	U	$0.14	6.82%	$0.01
173	Degavolver	R	$0.39	2.27%	$0.01
174	Sylvan Messenger foil	U	$7.26	0.122%	$0.01
175	Suffocating Blast	R	$0.38	2.27%	$0.01
176	Aether Mutation foil	U	$6.77	0.122%	$0.01
177	Quicksilver Dagger foil	C	$2.53	0.325%	$0.01
178	Anavolver	R	$0.36	2.27%	$0.01
179	Yavimaya's Embrace	R	$0.36	2.27%	$0.01
180	Illuminate	U	$0.12	6.82%	$0.01
181	Martyrs' Tomb	U	$0.12	6.82%	$0.01
182	Necra Sanctuary	U	$0.12	6.82%	$0.01
183	Jilt foil	C	$2.45	0.325%	$0.01
184	False Dawn	R	$0.35	2.27%	$0.01
185	Rakavolver	R	$0.35	2.27%	$0.01
186	Gaea's Balance foil	U	$6.48	0.122%	$0.01
187	Consume Strength foil	C	$2.34	0.325%	$0.01
188	Last Stand	R	$0.33	2.27%	$0.01
189	Flowstone Charger	U	$0.11	6.82%	$0.01
190	Last Stand foil	R	$18.36	0.0406%	$0.01
191	Mind Extraction foil	C	$2.25	0.325%	$0.01
192	Overgrown Estate foil	R	$17.82	0.0406%	$0.01
193	Whirlpool Drake foil	U	$5.84	0.122%	$0.01
194	Cetavolver	R	$0.31	2.27%	$0.01
195	Desolation Giant	R	$0.30	2.27%	$0.01
196	Mask of Intolerance	R	$0.30	2.27%	$0.01
197	Orim's Thunder foil	C	$2.09	0.325%	$0.01
198	Ceta Sanctuary foil	U	$5.50	0.122%	$0.01
199	Grave Defiler foil	U	$5.46	0.122%	$0.01
200	Fungal Shambler	R	$0.28	2.27%	$0.01
201	Kavu Mauler	R	$0.28	2.27%	$0.01
202	Penumbra Wurm foil	R	$14.79	0.0406%	$0.01
203	Death Grasp foil	R	$14.73	0.0406%	$0.01
204	Symbiotic Deployment foil	R	$14.24	0.0406%	$0.01
205	Ana Sanctuary foil	U	$4.68	0.122%	$0.01
206	Index foil	C	$1.74	0.325%	$0.01
207	Goblin Trenches foil	R	$12.69	0.0406%	$0.01
208	Bloodfire Colossus foil	R	$12.63	0.0406%	$0.01
209	Spectral Lynx foil	R	$12.42	0.0406%	$0.01
210	Necra Sanctuary foil	U	$4.04	0.122%	<$0.01
211	Enlistment Officer foil	U	$3.83	0.122%	<$0.01
212	Lay of the Land foil	C	$1.42	0.325%	<$0.01
213	Vodalian Mystic foil	U	$3.75	0.122%	<$0.01
214	Prophetic Bolt foil	R	$10.25	0.0406%	<$0.01
215	Suffocating Blast foil	R	$10.00	0.0406%	<$0.01
216	Desolation Giant foil	R	$9.74	0.0406%	<$0.01
217	Last Caress foil	C	$1.20	0.325%	<$0.01
218	Putrid Warrior foil	C	$1.19	0.325%	<$0.01
219	Planar Despair	R	$0.17	2.27%	<$0.01
220	False Dawn foil	R	$9.27	0.0406%	<$0.01
221	Suppress foil	U	$3.04	0.122%	<$0.01
222	Degavolver foil	R	$8.75	0.0406%	<$0.01
223	Smash foil	C	$1.08	0.325%	<$0.01
224	Anavolver foil	R	$8.24	0.0406%	<$0.01
225	Tidal Courier foil	U	$2.70	0.122%	<$0.01
226	Strength of Night foil	C	$1.00	0.325%	<$0.01
227	Bloodfire Infusion foil	C	$0.99	0.325%	<$0.01
228	Minotaur Illusionist foil	U	$2.58	0.122%	<$0.01
229	Phyrexian Gargantua foil	U	$2.57	0.122%	<$0.01
230	Divine Light foil	C	$0.95	0.325%	<$0.01
231	Captain's Maneuver foil	U	$2.47	0.122%	<$0.01
232	Diversionary Tactics foil	U	$2.46	0.122%	<$0.01
233	Penumbra Bobcat foil	C	$0.90	0.325%	<$0.01
234	Necravolver foil	R	$7.00	0.0406%	<$0.01
235	Coalition Flag foil	U	$2.32	0.122%	<$0.01
236	Goblin Legionnaire foil	C	$0.86	0.325%	<$0.01
237	Ceta Disciple foil	C	$0.83	0.325%	<$0.01
238	Tahngarth's Glare foil	C	$0.80	0.325%	<$0.01
239	Mask of Intolerance foil	R	$6.33	0.0406%	<$0.01
240	Dwarven Landslide foil	C	$0.79	0.325%	<$0.01
241	Bloodfire Kavu foil	U	$2.04	0.122%	<$0.01
242	Rakavolver foil	R	$6.08	0.0406%	<$0.01
243	Jungle Barrier foil	U	$1.88	0.122%	<$0.01
244	Angelfire Crusader foil	C	$0.70	0.325%	<$0.01
245	Kavu Glider foil	C	$0.70	0.325%	<$0.01
246	Raka Disciple foil	C	$0.70	0.325%	<$0.01
247	Glade Gnarr foil	C	$0.69	0.325%	<$0.01
248	Zombie Boa foil	C	$0.69	0.325%	<$0.01
249	Death Mutation foil	U	$1.82	0.122%	<$0.01
250	Manacles of Decay foil	C	$0.65	0.325%	<$0.01
251	Urborg Uprising foil	C	$0.65	0.325%	<$0.01
252	Dead Ringers foil	C	$0.63	0.325%	<$0.01
253	Martyrs' Tomb foil	U	$1.68	0.122%	<$0.01
254	Cetavolver foil	R	$5.00	0.0406%	<$0.01
255	Ana Disciple foil	C	$0.59	0.325%	<$0.01
256	Necra Disciple foil	C	$0.58	0.325%	<$0.01
257	Dega Sanctuary foil	U	$1.49	0.122%	<$0.01
258	Dega Disciple foil	C	$0.53	0.325%	<$0.01
259	Night // Day foil	U	$1.38	0.122%	<$0.01
260	Bog Gnarr foil	C	$0.51	0.325%	<$0.01
261	Helionaut foil	C	$0.51	0.325%	<$0.01
262	Mournful Zombie foil	C	$0.50	0.325%	<$0.01
263	Brass Herald foil	U	$1.33	0.122%	<$0.01
264	Coastal Drake foil	C	$0.48	0.325%	<$0.01
265	Minotaur Tactician foil	C	$0.47	0.325%	<$0.01
266	Quagmire Druid foil	C	$0.47	0.325%	<$0.01
267	Tundra Kavu foil	C	$0.47	0.325%	<$0.01
268	Yavimaya's Embrace foil	R	$3.71	0.0406%	<$0.01
269	Living Airship foil	C	$0.46	0.325%	<$0.01
270	Penumbra Kavu foil	U	$1.21	0.122%	<$0.01
271	Tranquil Path foil	C	$0.45	0.325%	<$0.01
272	Emblazoned Golem foil	U	$1.13	0.122%	<$0.01
273	Savage Gorilla foil	C	$0.41	0.325%	<$0.01
274	Fungal Shambler foil	R	$3.24	0.0406%	<$0.01
275	Kavu Mauler foil	R	$3.21	0.0406%	<$0.01
276	Order // Chaos foil	U	$1.02	0.122%	<$0.01
277	Dodecapod foil	U	$0.99	0.122%	<$0.01
278	Ebony Treefolk foil	U	$0.95	0.122%	<$0.01
279	Illuminate foil	U	$0.94	0.122%	<$0.01
280	Dwarven Patrol foil	U	$0.91	0.122%	<$0.01
281	Raka Sanctuary foil	U	$0.89	0.122%	<$0.01
282	Illusion // Reality foil	U	$0.80	0.122%	<$0.01
283	Kavu Howler foil	U	$0.79	0.122%	<$0.01
284	Planar Despair foil	R	$1.86	0.0406%	<$0.01
285	Flowstone Charger foil	U	$0.55	0.122%	<$0.01
286	Foul Presence foil	U	$0.41	0.122%	<$0.01