Dragon's Maze

Draft booster (10 commons · 3 uncommons · 1 rare/mythic · 1 land) · 15 cards · estimated average value $2.99

Pack prices compared with estimated typical and average contents value
Pack	Pack price	Typical (median)	Average	Average − price	Average / price
Dragon's Maze · Draft	$5.52 ↗	$2.49	$2.99	−$2.53	54%

Typical value (median)$2.49

Average value$2.99

Middle 80% of simulated packs$2.01 – $3.99

Estimated chance of contents worth at least$2.00 91%$5.00 4%$10.00 <1%$20.00 <1%$50.00 0%

Half of simulated packs are worth less than the median. These are gross singles values, before fees and shipping. The model omits some bonus cards and uses approximate slot odds.

Pack contents, odds, and calculation details

Where the value sits

Slot	Odds	×	EV
Common	common	9	$1.28
Common / foil	common 67% · foil common 24% · foil uncommon 7% · foil rare / mythic 2%	1	$0.49
Uncommon	uncommon	3	$0.50
Rare / mythic	rare / mythic	1	$0.57
Common (land slot)	common	1	$0.14

Mythics print at half the rate of rares (about 1 pack in 8).
A foil of any rarity replaces a common in about 1 pack in 3.
No basic lands in this set: the land slot holds a common.
Pool: 156 booster printings; 156 priced on TCGplayer, 0 without a quote (counted as zero); 1 foils without a foil quote counted at their nonfoil price. common 70/70 · uncommon 40/40 · rare 35/35 · mythic 11/11
Estimated average value under this model: $2.99. The distribution comes from 20000 simulated packs. Their mean is $2.98 ± $0.02.

Cards in the Pack

Every card a pack can hold, with the share of the pack value it carries. Chance is the expected number of copies in one pack, added up over every slot that can hold the card. EV is price times chance; the column adds up to the pack value.

Cards in one booster pack of Dragon's Maze, with price, chance per pack, and share of the pack value
#	Card	R	Price	Chance per pack	EV
1	Hidden Strings foil	C	$39.94	0.340%	$0.14
2	Wear // Tear	U	$1.14	7.50%	$0.09
3	Master of Cruelties	M	$5.92	1.23%	$0.07
4	Render Silent	R	$2.61	2.47%	$0.06
5	Crypt Incursion	C	$0.35	15.2%	$0.05
6	Notion Thief	R	$1.94	2.47%	$0.05
7	Hidden Strings	C	$0.31	15.2%	$0.05
8	Selesnya Guildgate	C	$0.30	15.2%	$0.05
9	Possibility Storm	R	$1.83	2.47%	$0.05
10	Riot Control	C	$0.28	15.2%	$0.04
11	Orzhov Guildgate	C	$0.27	15.2%	$0.04
12	Tithe Drinker	C	$0.27	15.2%	$0.04
13	Azorius Guildgate	C	$0.26	15.2%	$0.04
14	Golgari Cluestone	C	$0.25	15.2%	$0.04
15	Rakdos Guildgate	C	$0.25	15.2%	$0.04
16	Golgari Guildgate	C	$0.23	15.2%	$0.04
17	Izzet Cluestone	C	$0.23	15.2%	$0.04
18	Mutant's Prey	C	$0.23	15.2%	$0.04
19	Zhur-Taa Druid	C	$0.23	15.2%	$0.04
20	Dimir Guildgate	C	$0.22	15.2%	$0.03
21	Gruul Guildgate	C	$0.20	15.2%	$0.03
22	Maze Rusher	C	$0.20	15.2%	$0.03
23	Simic Guildgate	C	$0.20	15.2%	$0.03
24	Selesnya Cluestone	C	$0.19	15.2%	$0.03
25	Debt to the Deathless	U	$0.38	7.50%	$0.03
26	Dimir Cluestone	C	$0.18	15.2%	$0.03
27	Gruul Cluestone	C	$0.18	15.2%	$0.03
28	Rakdos Cluestone	C	$0.18	15.2%	$0.03
29	Wake the Reflections	C	$0.18	15.2%	$0.03
30	Drown in Filth	C	$0.17	15.2%	$0.03
31	Phytoburst	C	$0.17	15.2%	$0.03
32	Simic Cluestone	C	$0.17	15.2%	$0.03
33	Smelt-Ward Gatekeepers	C	$0.17	15.2%	$0.03
34	Boros Guildgate	C	$0.16	15.2%	$0.02
35	Mending Touch	C	$0.16	15.2%	$0.02
36	Opal Lake Gatekeepers	C	$0.16	15.2%	$0.02
37	Orzhov Cluestone	C	$0.16	15.2%	$0.02
38	Awe for the Guilds	C	$0.15	15.2%	$0.02
39	Boros Mastiff	C	$0.14	15.2%	$0.02
40	Nivix Cyclops	C	$0.14	15.2%	$0.02
41	Voice of Resurgence	M	$1.62	1.23%	$0.02
42	Render Silent foil	R	$33.86	0.0588%	$0.02
43	Armored Wolf-Rider	C	$0.13	15.2%	$0.02
44	Boros Cluestone	C	$0.13	15.2%	$0.02
45	Mindstatic	C	$0.13	15.2%	$0.02
46	Saruli Gatekeepers	C	$0.13	15.2%	$0.02
47	Viashino Firstblade	C	$0.13	15.2%	$0.02
48	Maze's End	M	$1.56	1.23%	$0.02
49	Progenitor Mimic	M	$1.49	1.23%	$0.02
50	Azorius Cluestone	C	$0.12	15.2%	$0.02
51	Maze Sentinel	C	$0.12	15.2%	$0.02
52	Give // Take	U	$0.24	7.50%	$0.02
53	Wear // Tear foil	U	$9.44	0.179%	$0.02
54	Izzet Guildgate	C	$0.11	15.2%	$0.02
55	Rubblebelt Maaka	C	$0.11	15.2%	$0.02
56	Sunspire Gatekeepers	C	$0.11	15.2%	$0.02
57	Ubul Sar Gatekeepers	C	$0.11	15.2%	$0.02
58	Bred for the Hunt	U	$0.22	7.50%	$0.02
59	Turn // Burn	U	$0.22	7.50%	$0.02
60	Crypt Incursion foil	C	$4.70	0.340%	$0.02
61	Armed // Dangerous	U	$0.21	7.50%	$0.02
62	Putrefy	U	$0.21	7.50%	$0.02
63	Rot Farm Skeleton	U	$0.21	7.50%	$0.02
64	Warleader's Helix	U	$0.21	7.50%	$0.02
65	Haazda Snare Squad	C	$0.10	15.2%	$0.02
66	Murmuring Phantasm	C	$0.10	15.2%	$0.02
67	Pilfered Plans	C	$0.10	15.2%	$0.02
68	Uncovered Clues	C	$0.10	15.2%	$0.02
69	Gruul War Chant	U	$0.20	7.50%	$0.02
70	Showstopper	U	$0.20	7.50%	$0.02
71	Teysa, Envoy of Ghosts	R	$0.59	2.47%	$0.01
72	Far // Away	U	$0.18	7.50%	$0.01
73	Mending Touch foil	C	$3.81	0.340%	$0.01
74	Feral Animist	U	$0.17	7.50%	$0.01
75	Fluxcharger	U	$0.17	7.50%	$0.01
76	Profit // Loss	U	$0.17	7.50%	$0.01
77	Trostani's Summoner	U	$0.17	7.50%	$0.01
78	Battering Krasis	C	$0.08	15.2%	$0.01
79	Fatal Fumes	C	$0.08	15.2%	$0.01
80	Lyev Decree	C	$0.08	15.2%	$0.01
81	Maze Behemoth	C	$0.08	15.2%	$0.01
82	Riot Piker	C	$0.08	15.2%	$0.01
83	Runner's Bane	C	$0.08	15.2%	$0.01
84	Sire of Insanity	R	$0.47	2.47%	$0.01
85	Ruric Thar, the Unbowed	R	$0.46	2.47%	$0.01
86	Jelenn Sphinx	U	$0.15	7.50%	$0.01
87	Sin Collector	U	$0.15	7.50%	$0.01
88	Species Gorger	U	$0.15	7.50%	$0.01
89	Varolz, the Scar-Striped	R	$0.45	2.47%	$0.01
90	Kraul Warrior	C	$0.07	15.2%	$0.01
91	Maze Abomination	C	$0.07	15.2%	$0.01
92	Sinister Possession	C	$0.07	15.2%	$0.01
93	Blast of Genius	U	$0.14	7.50%	$0.01
94	Gleam of Battle	U	$0.14	7.50%	$0.01
95	Unflinching Courage	U	$0.14	7.50%	$0.01
96	Legion's Initiative	M	$0.84	1.23%	$0.01
97	Mirko Vosk, Mind Drinker	R	$0.40	2.47%	$0.01
98	Tithe Drinker foil	C	$2.74	0.340%	$0.01
99	Riot Control foil	C	$2.73	0.340%	$0.01
100	Clear a Path	C	$0.06	15.2%	$0.01
101	Hired Torturer	C	$0.06	15.2%	$0.01
102	Rakdos Drake	C	$0.06	15.2%	$0.01
103	Wind Drake	C	$0.06	15.2%	$0.01
104	Maw of the Obzedat	U	$0.12	7.50%	$0.01
105	Scab-Clan Giant	U	$0.12	7.50%	$0.01
106	Zhur-Taa Ancient	R	$0.34	2.47%	$0.01
107	Ascended Lawmage	U	$0.11	7.50%	$0.01
108	Carnage Gladiator	U	$0.11	7.50%	$0.01
109	Toil // Trouble	U	$0.11	7.50%	$0.01
110	Tajic, Blade of the Legion	R	$0.33	2.47%	$0.01
111	Aetherling	R	$0.32	2.47%	$0.01
112	Breaking // Entering	R	$0.32	2.47%	$0.01
113	Renegade Krasis	R	$0.32	2.47%	$0.01
114	Vorel of the Hull Clade	R	$0.32	2.47%	$0.01
115	Blood Scrivener	R	$0.31	2.47%	$0.01
116	Trait Doctoring	R	$0.31	2.47%	$0.01
117	Bane Alley Blackguard	C	$0.05	15.2%	$0.01
118	Deputy of Acquittals	C	$0.05	15.2%	$0.01
119	Weapon Surge	C	$0.05	15.2%	$0.01
120	Down // Dirty	U	$0.10	7.50%	$0.01
121	Korozda Gorgon	U	$0.10	7.50%	$0.01
122	Spike Jester	U	$0.10	7.50%	$0.01
123	Blood Baron of Vizkopa	M	$0.60	1.23%	$0.01
124	Beck // Call	R	$0.30	2.47%	$0.01
125	Emmara Tandris	R	$0.30	2.47%	$0.01
126	Obzedat's Aid	R	$0.30	2.47%	$0.01
127	Ral Zarek	M	$0.58	1.23%	$0.01
128	Flesh // Blood	R	$0.29	2.47%	$0.01
129	Lavinia of the Tenth	R	$0.28	2.47%	$0.01
130	Melek, Izzet Paragon	R	$0.28	2.47%	$0.01
131	Plasm Capture	R	$0.28	2.47%	$0.01
132	Blaze Commando	U	$0.09	7.50%	$0.01
133	Possibility Storm foil	R	$11.44	0.0588%	$0.01
134	Gaze of Granite	R	$0.27	2.47%	$0.01
135	Pontiff of Blight	R	$0.27	2.47%	$0.01
136	Renounce the Guilds	R	$0.27	2.47%	$0.01
137	Deadbridge Chant	M	$0.52	1.23%	$0.01
138	Savageborn Hydra	M	$0.52	1.23%	$0.01
139	Boros Battleshaper	R	$0.26	2.47%	$0.01
140	Ready // Willing	R	$0.26	2.47%	$0.01
141	Debt to the Deathless foil	U	$3.52	0.179%	$0.01
142	Beetleform Mage	C	$0.04	15.2%	$0.01
143	Maze Glider	C	$0.04	15.2%	$0.01
144	Thrashing Mossdog	C	$0.04	15.2%	$0.01
145	Alive // Well	U	$0.08	7.50%	$0.01
146	Protect // Serve	U	$0.08	7.50%	$0.01
147	Voice of Resurgence foil	M	$18.81	0.0294%	$0.01
148	Zhur-Taa Druid foil	C	$1.57	0.340%	$0.01
149	Goblin Test Pilot	U	$0.07	7.50%	$0.01
150	Restore the Peace	U	$0.07	7.50%	$0.01
151	Advent of the Wurm	R	$0.21	2.47%	$0.01
152	Catch // Release	R	$0.21	2.47%	$0.01
153	Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch	R	$0.21	2.47%	$0.01
154	Scion of Vitu-Ghazi	R	$0.21	2.47%	$0.01
155	Mirko Vosk, Mind Drinker foil	R	$7.98	0.0588%	<$0.01
156	Skylasher	R	$0.19	2.47%	<$0.01
157	Notion Thief foil	R	$7.86	0.0588%	<$0.01
158	Morgue Burst	C	$0.03	15.2%	<$0.01
159	Punish the Enemy	C	$0.03	15.2%	<$0.01
160	Steeple Roc	C	$0.03	15.2%	<$0.01
161	Woodlot Crawler	U	$0.06	7.50%	<$0.01
162	Dragonshift	R	$0.17	2.47%	<$0.01
163	Progenitor Mimic foil	M	$13.74	0.0294%	<$0.01
164	Pyrewild Shaman	R	$0.16	2.47%	<$0.01
165	Council of the Absolute	M	$0.31	1.23%	<$0.01
166	Blood Baron of Vizkopa foil	M	$12.91	0.0294%	<$0.01
167	Bronzebeak Moa	U	$0.05	7.50%	<$0.01
168	Haunter of Nightveil	U	$0.05	7.50%	<$0.01
169	Warped Physique	U	$0.05	7.50%	<$0.01
170	Reap Intellect	M	$0.29	1.23%	<$0.01
171	Master of Cruelties foil	M	$10.83	0.0294%	<$0.01
172	Sire of Insanity foil	R	$4.59	0.0588%	<$0.01
173	Boros Guildgate foil	C	$0.78	0.340%	<$0.01
174	Izzet Guildgate foil	C	$0.77	0.340%	<$0.01
175	Varolz, the Scar-Striped foil	R	$4.44	0.0588%	<$0.01
176	Phytoburst foil	C	$0.75	0.340%	<$0.01
177	Maze's End foil	M	$8.30	0.0294%	<$0.01
178	Bred for the Hunt foil	U	$1.36	0.179%	<$0.01
179	Simic Guildgate foil	C	$0.68	0.340%	<$0.01
180	Krasis Incubation	U	$0.03	7.50%	<$0.01
181	Saruli Gatekeepers foil	C	$0.64	0.340%	<$0.01
182	Azorius Guildgate foil	C	$0.63	0.340%	<$0.01
183	Gruul War Chant foil	U	$1.12	0.179%	<$0.01
184	Pontiff of Blight foil	R	$3.33	0.0588%	<$0.01
185	Unflinching Courage foil	U	$1.06	0.179%	<$0.01
186	Nivix Cyclops foil	C	$0.55	0.340%	<$0.01
187	Selesnya Guildgate foil	C	$0.54	0.340%	<$0.01
188	Dimir Cluestone foil	C	$0.53	0.340%	<$0.01
189	Orzhov Cluestone foil	C	$0.53	0.340%	<$0.01
190	Gleam of Battle foil	U	$1.00	0.179%	<$0.01
191	Plasm Capture foil	R	$3.02	0.0588%	<$0.01
192	Species Gorger foil	U	$0.99	0.179%	<$0.01
193	Rakdos Guildgate foil	C	$0.51	0.340%	<$0.01
194	Deadbridge Chant foil	M	$5.86	0.0294%	<$0.01
195	Punish the Enemy foil	C	$0.50	0.340%	<$0.01
196	Gruul Guildgate foil	C	$0.49	0.340%	<$0.01
197	Putrefy foil	U	$0.93	0.179%	<$0.01
198	Dimir Guildgate foil	C	$0.48	0.340%	<$0.01
199	Mutant's Prey foil	C	$0.47	0.340%	<$0.01
200	Orzhov Guildgate foil	C	$0.47	0.340%	<$0.01
201	Azorius Cluestone foil	C	$0.45	0.340%	<$0.01
202	Boros Cluestone foil	C	$0.45	0.340%	<$0.01
203	Golgari Guildgate foil	C	$0.45	0.340%	<$0.01
204	Rakdos Cluestone foil	C	$0.45	0.340%	<$0.01
205	Warleader's Helix foil	U	$0.82	0.179%	<$0.01
206	Tajic, Blade of the Legion foil	R	$2.34	0.0588%	<$0.01
207	Mindstatic foil	C	$0.40	0.340%	<$0.01
208	Wake the Reflections foil	C	$0.40	0.340%	<$0.01
209	Pilfered Plans foil	C	$0.39	0.340%	<$0.01
210	Selesnya Cluestone foil	C	$0.39	0.340%	<$0.01
211	Viashino Firstblade foil	C	$0.39	0.340%	<$0.01
212	Ral Zarek foil	M	$4.47	0.0294%	<$0.01
213	Izzet Cluestone foil	C	$0.38	0.340%	<$0.01
214	Give // Take foil	U	$0.68	0.179%	<$0.01
215	Legion's Initiative foil	M	$4.02	0.0294%	<$0.01
216	Teysa, Envoy of Ghosts foil	R	$1.96	0.0588%	<$0.01
217	Korozda Gorgon foil	U	$0.62	0.179%	<$0.01
218	Golgari Cluestone foil	C	$0.32	0.340%	<$0.01
219	Gruul Cluestone foil	C	$0.32	0.340%	<$0.01
220	Morgue Burst foil	C	$0.31	0.340%	<$0.01
221	Rubblebelt Maaka foil	C	$0.30	0.340%	<$0.01
222	Maw of the Obzedat foil	U	$0.57	0.179%	<$0.01
223	Armed // Dangerous foil	U	$0.56	0.179%	<$0.01
224	Simic Cluestone foil	C	$0.29	0.340%	<$0.01
225	Ruric Thar, the Unbowed foil	R	$1.65	0.0588%	<$0.01
226	Blaze Commando foil	U	$0.53	0.179%	<$0.01
227	Drown in Filth foil	C	$0.26	0.340%	<$0.01
228	Maze Behemoth foil	C	$0.26	0.340%	<$0.01
229	Gaze of Granite foil	R	$1.50	0.0588%	<$0.01
230	Profit // Loss foil	U	$0.49	0.179%	<$0.01
231	Sin Collector foil	U	$0.49	0.179%	<$0.01
232	Deputy of Acquittals foil	C	$0.25	0.340%	<$0.01
233	Sinister Possession foil	C	$0.25	0.340%	<$0.01
234	Steeple Roc foil	C	$0.25	0.340%	<$0.01
235	Bronzebeak Moa foil	U	$0.47	0.179%	<$0.01
236	Boros Mastiff foil	C	$0.24	0.340%	<$0.01
237	Murmuring Phantasm foil	C	$0.24	0.340%	<$0.01
238	Uncovered Clues foil	C	$0.24	0.340%	<$0.01
239	Showstopper foil	U	$0.44	0.179%	<$0.01
240	Turn // Burn foil	U	$0.44	0.179%	<$0.01
241	Maze Abomination foil	C	$0.23	0.340%	<$0.01
242	Spike Jester foil	U	$0.42	0.179%	<$0.01
243	Runner's Bane foil	C	$0.22	0.340%	<$0.01
244	Wind Drake foil	C	$0.22	0.340%	<$0.01
245	Alive // Well foil	U	$0.41	0.179%	<$0.01
246	Blast of Genius foil	U	$0.40	0.179%	<$0.01
247	Armored Wolf-Rider foil	C	$0.21	0.340%	<$0.01
248	Kraul Warrior foil	C	$0.21	0.340%	<$0.01
249	Maze Glider foil	C	$0.21	0.340%	<$0.01
250	Rakdos Drake foil	C	$0.21	0.340%	<$0.01
251	Emmara Tandris foil	R	$1.19	0.0588%	<$0.01
252	Restore the Peace foil	U	$0.39	0.179%	<$0.01
253	Trostani's Summoner foil	U	$0.39	0.179%	<$0.01
254	Battering Krasis foil	C	$0.20	0.340%	<$0.01
255	Beetleform Mage foil	C	$0.20	0.340%	<$0.01
256	Thrashing Mossdog foil	C	$0.20	0.340%	<$0.01
257	Rot Farm Skeleton foil	U	$0.37	0.179%	<$0.01
258	Zhur-Taa Ancient foil	R	$1.12	0.0588%	<$0.01
259	Hired Torturer foil	C	$0.19	0.340%	<$0.01
260	Woodlot Crawler foil	U	$0.36	0.179%	<$0.01
261	Ascended Lawmage foil	U	$0.35	0.179%	<$0.01
262	Carnage Gladiator foil	U	$0.33	0.179%	<$0.01
263	Jelenn Sphinx foil	U	$0.33	0.179%	<$0.01
264	Trait Doctoring foil	R	$1.00	0.0588%	<$0.01
265	Smelt-Ward Gatekeepers foil	C	$0.17	0.340%	<$0.01
266	Weapon Surge foil	C	$0.17	0.340%	<$0.01
267	Protect // Serve foil	U	$0.31	0.179%	<$0.01
268	Toil // Trouble foil	U	$0.31	0.179%	<$0.01
269	Vorel of the Hull Clade foil	R	$0.93	0.0588%	<$0.01
270	Lyev Decree foil	C	$0.16	0.340%	<$0.01
271	Feral Animist foil	U	$0.30	0.179%	<$0.01
272	Haunter of Nightveil foil	U	$0.30	0.179%	<$0.01
273	Fatal Fumes foil	C	$0.15	0.340%	<$0.01
274	Far // Away foil	U	$0.28	0.179%	<$0.01
275	Savageborn Hydra foil	M	$1.70	0.0294%	<$0.01
276	Advent of the Wurm foil	R	$0.85	0.0588%	<$0.01
277	Renegade Krasis foil	R	$0.85	0.0588%	<$0.01
278	Melek, Izzet Paragon foil	R	$0.84	0.0588%	<$0.01
279	Opal Lake Gatekeepers foil	C	$0.14	0.340%	<$0.01
280	Beck // Call foil	R	$0.79	0.0588%	<$0.01
281	Aetherling foil	R	$0.74	0.0588%	<$0.01
282	Goblin Test Pilot foil	U	$0.24	0.179%	<$0.01
283	Maze Rusher foil	C	$0.12	0.340%	<$0.01
284	Ubul Sar Gatekeepers foil	C	$0.12	0.340%	<$0.01
285	Catch // Release foil	R	$0.68	0.0588%	<$0.01
286	Ready // Willing foil	R	$0.66	0.0588%	<$0.01
287	Skylasher foil	R	$0.64	0.0588%	<$0.01
288	Awe for the Guilds foil	C	$0.10	0.340%	<$0.01
289	Clear a Path foil	C	$0.10	0.340%	<$0.01
290	Maze Sentinel foil	C	$0.10	0.340%	<$0.01
291	Riot Piker foil	C	$0.10	0.340%	<$0.01
292	Sunspire Gatekeepers foil	C	$0.10	0.340%	<$0.01
293	Pyrewild Shaman foil	R	$0.55	0.0588%	<$0.01
294	Council of the Absolute foil	M	$1.06	0.0294%	<$0.01
295	Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch foil	R	$0.52	0.0588%	<$0.01
296	Krasis Incubation foil	U	$0.17	0.179%	<$0.01
297	Boros Battleshaper foil	R	$0.51	0.0588%	<$0.01
298	Obzedat's Aid foil	R	$0.49	0.0588%	<$0.01
299	Down // Dirty foil	U	$0.15	0.179%	<$0.01
300	Fluxcharger foil	U	$0.15	0.179%	<$0.01
301	Blood Scrivener foil	R	$0.44	0.0588%	<$0.01
302	Flesh // Blood foil	R	$0.41	0.0588%	<$0.01
303	Lavinia of the Tenth foil	R	$0.41	0.0588%	<$0.01
304	Renounce the Guilds foil	R	$0.39	0.0588%	<$0.01
305	Dragonshift foil	R	$0.38	0.0588%	<$0.01
306	Scab-Clan Giant foil	U	$0.12	0.179%	<$0.01
307	Scion of Vitu-Ghazi foil	R	$0.33	0.0588%	<$0.01
308	Warped Physique foil	U	$0.10	0.179%	<$0.01
309	Haazda Snare Squad foil	C	$0.05	0.340%	<$0.01
310	Bane Alley Blackguard foil	C	$0.04	0.340%	<$0.01
311	Reap Intellect foil	M	$0.39	0.0294%	<$0.01
312	Breaking // Entering foil	R	$0.18	0.0588%	<$0.01