Booster value estimates
HML · 1995
Homelands
15-card booster (11 commons · 3 uncommons · 1 rare) · 15 cards · estimated average value $6.79
| Pack | Pack price | Typical (median) | Average | Average − price | Average / price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Homelands · Booster | $14.73 ↗ | $4.47 | $6.79 | −$7.94 | 46% |
Typical value (median)$4.47
Average value$6.79
Middle 80% of simulated packs$3.19 – $11.97
Estimated chance of contents worth at least$2.00 100%$5.00 42%$10.00 23%$20.00 4%$50.00 0%
Half of simulated packs are worth less than the median. These are gross singles values, before fees and shipping. The model omits some bonus cards and uses approximate slot odds.
Pack contents, odds, and calculation details
Where the value sits
| Slot | Odds | × | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common | common | 11 | $3.69 |
| Uncommon | uncommon | 3 | $0.78 |
| Rare | rare / mythic | 1 | $2.31 |
- Printed before foils existed; no foil slot.
- Pool: 115 booster printings; 115 priced on TCGplayer, 0 without a quote (counted as zero). common 46/46 · uncommon 27/27 · rare 42/42
- Estimated average value under this model: $6.79. The distribution comes from 20000 simulated packs. Their mean is $6.76 ± $0.04.
Cards in the Pack
Every card a pack can hold, with the share of the pack value it carries. Chance is the expected number of copies in one pack, added up over every slot that can hold the card. EV is price times chance; the column adds up to the pack value.
| # | Card | R | Price | Chance per pack | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Merchant Scroll | C | $6.85 | 23.9% | $1.64 |
| 2 |  Didgeridoo | R | $21.00 | 2.38% | $0.50 |
| 3 |  Koskun Falls | R | $17.11 | 2.38% | $0.41 |
| 4 |  Willow Priestess | R | $7.27 | 2.38% | $0.17 |
| 5 |  Memory Lapse | C | $0.72 | 23.9% | $0.17 |
| 6 |  Baron Sengir | R | $5.33 | 2.38% | $0.13 |
| 7 |  Joven | C | $0.47 | 23.9% | $0.11 |
| 8 |  Serrated Arrows | C | $0.38 | 23.9% | $0.09 |
| 9 |  Joven's Ferrets | C | $0.36 | 23.9% | $0.09 |
| 10 |  Sengir Autocrat | U | $0.76 | 11.1% | $0.08 |
| 11 |  Chandler | C | $0.34 | 23.9% | $0.08 |
| 12 |  Dwarven Trader | C | $0.34 | 23.9% | $0.08 |
| 13 |  An-Zerrin Ruins | R | $3.13 | 2.38% | $0.07 |
| 14 |  Leeches | R | $3.04 | 2.38% | $0.07 |
| 15 |  Chain Stasis | R | $2.72 | 2.38% | $0.06 |
| 16 |  Dwarven Pony | R | $2.69 | 2.38% | $0.06 |
| 17 |  Dry Spell | C | $0.25 | 23.9% | $0.06 |
| 18 |  Roterothopter | C | $0.25 | 23.9% | $0.06 |
| 19 |  Wall of Kelp | R | $2.40 | 2.38% | $0.06 |
| 20 |  Primal Order | R | $2.36 | 2.38% | $0.06 |
| 21 |  Faerie Noble | R | $2.27 | 2.38% | $0.05 |
| 22 |  Feast of the Unicorn | C | $0.22 | 23.9% | $0.05 |
| 23 |  Jinx | C | $0.22 | 23.9% | $0.05 |
| 24 |  Soraya the Falconer | R | $2.18 | 2.38% | $0.05 |
| 25 |  Renewal | C | $0.21 | 23.9% | $0.05 |
| 26 |  Winter Sky | R | $1.97 | 2.38% | $0.05 |
| 27 |  Ebony Rhino | C | $0.19 | 23.9% | $0.05 |
| 28 |  Cemetery Gate | C | $0.18 | 23.9% | $0.04 |
| 29 |  Clockwork Gnomes | C | $0.18 | 23.9% | $0.04 |
| 30 |  Clockwork Swarm | C | $0.18 | 23.9% | $0.04 |
| 31 |  Prophecy | C | $0.18 | 23.9% | $0.04 |
| 32 |  Reef Pirates | C | $0.18 | 23.9% | $0.04 |
| 33 |  Autumn Willow | R | $1.73 | 2.38% | $0.04 |
| 34 |  Spectral Bears | U | $0.37 | 11.1% | $0.04 |
| 35 |  Carapace | C | $0.17 | 23.9% | $0.04 |
| 36 |  Truce | R | $1.68 | 2.38% | $0.04 |
| 37 |  Drudge Spell | U | $0.35 | 11.1% | $0.04 |
| 38 |  Ihsan's Shade | U | $0.35 | 11.1% | $0.04 |
| 39 |  Clockwork Steed | C | $0.16 | 23.9% | $0.04 |
| 40 |  Coral Reef | C | $0.16 | 23.9% | $0.04 |
| 41 |  Headstone | C | $0.16 | 23.9% | $0.04 |
| 42 |  Serra Bestiary | C | $0.16 | 23.9% | $0.04 |
| 43 |  Wizards' School | U | $0.34 | 11.1% | $0.04 |
| 44 |  Anaba Bodyguard | C | $0.15 | 23.9% | $0.04 |
| 45 |  Giant Albatross | C | $0.15 | 23.9% | $0.04 |
| 46 |  Greater Werewolf | C | $0.15 | 23.9% | $0.04 |
| 47 |  Sengir Bats | C | $0.15 | 23.9% | $0.04 |
| 48 |  Aysen Abbey | U | $0.32 | 11.1% | $0.04 |
| 49 |  Abbey Matron | C | $0.14 | 23.9% | $0.03 |
| 50 |  Aliban's Tower | C | $0.14 | 23.9% | $0.03 |
| 51 |  Ambush | C | $0.14 | 23.9% | $0.03 |
| 52 |  Ambush Party | C | $0.14 | 23.9% | $0.03 |
| 53 |  Funeral March | C | $0.14 | 23.9% | $0.03 |
| 54 |  Leaping Lizard | C | $0.14 | 23.9% | $0.03 |
| 55 |  Torture | C | $0.14 | 23.9% | $0.03 |
| 56 |  An-Havva Township | U | $0.30 | 11.1% | $0.03 |
| 57 |  Narwhal | R | $1.31 | 2.38% | $0.03 |
| 58 |  Aether Storm | U | $0.28 | 11.1% | $0.03 |
| 59 |  Castle Sengir | U | $0.28 | 11.1% | $0.03 |
| 60 |  Giant Oyster | U | $0.28 | 11.1% | $0.03 |
| 61 |  Dark Maze | C | $0.13 | 23.9% | $0.03 |
| 62 |  Hungry Mist | C | $0.13 | 23.9% | $0.03 |
| 63 |  Serra Paladin | C | $0.13 | 23.9% | $0.03 |
| 64 |  Trade Caravan | C | $0.13 | 23.9% | $0.03 |
| 65 |  Rashka the Slayer | U | $0.27 | 11.1% | $0.03 |
| 66 |  Folk of An-Havva | C | $0.12 | 23.9% | $0.03 |
| 67 |  Shrink | C | $0.12 | 23.9% | $0.03 |
| 68 |  Koskun Keep | U | $0.25 | 11.1% | $0.03 |
| 69 |  Grandmother Sengir | R | $1.14 | 2.38% | $0.03 |
| 70 |  Aysen Crusader | R | $1.13 | 2.38% | $0.03 |
| 71 |  Serra Aviary | R | $1.13 | 2.38% | $0.03 |
| 72 |  Eron the Relentless | U | $0.24 | 11.1% | $0.03 |
| 73 |  Irini Sengir | U | $0.24 | 11.1% | $0.03 |
| 74 |  Anaba Ancestor | R | $1.11 | 2.38% | $0.03 |
| 75 |  Anaba Shaman | C | $0.11 | 23.9% | $0.03 |
| 76 |  Labyrinth Minotaur | C | $0.11 | 23.9% | $0.03 |
| 77 |  Willow Faerie | C | $0.11 | 23.9% | $0.03 |
| 78 |  Mesa Falcon | C | $0.10 | 23.9% | $0.02 |
| 79 |  Anaba Spirit Crafter | R | $1.00 | 2.38% | $0.02 |
| 80 |  Mystic Decree | R | $1.00 | 2.38% | $0.02 |
| 81 |  Aysen Highway | R | $0.99 | 2.38% | $0.02 |
| 82 |  Abbey Gargoyles | U | $0.21 | 11.1% | $0.02 |
| 83 |  An-Havva Inn | U | $0.21 | 11.1% | $0.02 |
| 84 |  Evaporate | U | $0.21 | 11.1% | $0.02 |
| 85 |  Sea Sprite | U | $0.21 | 11.1% | $0.02 |
| 86 |  Orcish Mine | U | $0.20 | 11.1% | $0.02 |
| 87 |  Retribution | U | $0.19 | 11.1% | $0.02 |
| 88 |  Roots | U | $0.19 | 11.1% | $0.02 |
| 89 |  Black Carriage | R | $0.85 | 2.38% | $0.02 |
| 90 |  Rysorian Badger | R | $0.84 | 2.38% | $0.02 |
| 91 |  Joven's Tools | U | $0.18 | 11.1% | $0.02 |
| 92 |  Serra Inquisitors | U | $0.18 | 11.1% | $0.02 |
| 93 |  Daughter of Autumn | R | $0.83 | 2.38% | $0.02 |
| 94 |  Reveka, Wizard Savant | R | $0.83 | 2.38% | $0.02 |
| 95 |  Aysen Bureaucrats | C | $0.08 | 23.9% | $0.02 |
| 96 |  Samite Alchemist | C | $0.08 | 23.9% | $0.02 |
| 97 |  Root Spider | U | $0.17 | 11.1% | $0.02 |
| 98 |  Apocalypse Chime | R | $0.79 | 2.38% | $0.02 |
| 99 |  Death Speakers | U | $0.16 | 11.1% | $0.02 |
| 100 |  Sea Troll | U | $0.16 | 11.1% | $0.02 |
| 101 |  Ghost Hounds | U | $0.15 | 11.1% | $0.02 |
| 102 |  Timmerian Fiends | R | $0.69 | 2.38% | $0.02 |
| 103 |  Hazduhr the Abbot | R | $0.67 | 2.38% | $0.02 |
| 104 |  Dwarven Sea Clan | R | $0.64 | 2.38% | $0.02 |
| 105 |  Veldrane of Sengir | R | $0.64 | 2.38% | $0.02 |
| 106 |  Heart Wolf | R | $0.63 | 2.38% | $0.02 |
| 107 |  Beast Walkers | R | $0.57 | 2.38% | $0.01 |
| 108 |  Marjhan | R | $0.57 | 2.38% | $0.01 |
| 109 |  Mammoth Harness | R | $0.56 | 2.38% | $0.01 |
| 110 |  Baki's Curse | R | $0.48 | 2.38% | $0.01 |
| 111 |  Broken Visage | R | $0.46 | 2.38% | $0.01 |
| 112 |  Forget | R | $0.39 | 2.38% | $0.01 |
| 113 |  Feroz's Ban | R | $0.38 | 2.38% | $0.01 |
| 114 |  Ironclaw Curse | R | $0.34 | 2.38% | $0.01 |
| 115 |  An-Havva Constable | R | $0.32 | 2.38% | $0.01 |