Booster value estimates
UGL · 1998
Unglued
15-card booster (11 commons · 3 uncommons · 1 rare) · 15 cards · estimated average value $13.34
| Pack | Pack price | Typical (median) | Average | Average − price | Average / price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Unglued · Booster | $35.53 ↗ | $11.29 | $13.34 | −$22.19 | 38% |
Typical value (median)$11.29
Average value$13.34
Middle 80% of simulated packs$6.73 – $22.84
Estimated chance of contents worth at least$2.00 100%$5.00 99%$10.00 60%$20.00 14%$50.00 <1%
Half of simulated packs are worth less than the median. These are gross singles values, before fees and shipping. The model omits some bonus cards and uses approximate slot odds.
Pack contents, odds, and calculation details
Where the value sits
| Slot | Odds | × | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common | common | 11 | $6.26 |
| Uncommon | uncommon | 3 | $3.02 |
| Rare | rare / mythic | 1 | $4.06 |
- Printed before foils existed; no foil slot.
- Pool: 87 booster printings; 87 priced on TCGplayer, 0 without a quote (counted as zero). common 33/33 · uncommon 22/22 · rare 27/27 · basic / other 5/5
- Estimated average value under this model: $13.34. The distribution comes from 20000 simulated packs. Their mean is $13.37 ± $0.05.
Cards in the Pack
Every card a pack can hold, with the share of the pack value it carries. Chance is the expected number of copies in one pack, added up over every slot that can hold the card. EV is price times chance; the column adds up to the pack value.
| # | Card | R | Price | Chance per pack | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chaos Confetti | C | $3.47 | 33.3% | $1.16 |
| 2 |  Blacker Lotus | R | $28.84 | 3.70% | $1.07 |
| 3 |  Goblin Tutor | U | $6.50 | 13.6% | $0.89 |
| 4 |  Censorship | U | $5.59 | 13.6% | $0.76 |
| 5 |  Clambassadors | C | $2.27 | 33.3% | $0.76 |
| 6 |  B.F.M. (Big Furry Monster) | R | $18.42 | 3.70% | $0.68 |
| 7 |  Ghazbán Ogress | C | $1.77 | 33.3% | $0.59 |
| 8 |  Rock Lobster | C | $1.64 | 33.3% | $0.55 |
| 9 |  Ashnod's Coupon | R | $14.20 | 3.70% | $0.53 |
| 10 |  Scissors Lizard | C | $1.25 | 33.3% | $0.42 |
| 11 |  The Cheese Stands Alone | R | $9.12 | 3.70% | $0.34 |
| 12 |  Paper Tiger | C | $0.98 | 33.3% | $0.33 |
| 13 |  Jack-in-the-Mox | R | $7.64 | 3.70% | $0.28 |
| 14 |  Sex Appeal | C | $0.62 | 33.3% | $0.21 |
| 15 |  Goblin Bowling Team | C | $0.40 | 33.3% | $0.13 |
| 16 |  Infernal Spawn of Evil | R | $3.44 | 3.70% | $0.13 |
| 17 |  Urza's Contact Lenses | U | $0.92 | 13.6% | $0.13 |
| 18 |  Organ Harvest | C | $0.37 | 33.3% | $0.12 |
| 19 |  Goblin Bookie | C | $0.34 | 33.3% | $0.11 |
| 20 |  Urza's Science Fair Project | U | $0.82 | 13.6% | $0.11 |
| 21 |  Deadhead | C | $0.32 | 33.3% | $0.11 |
| 22 |  Mesa Chicken | C | $0.30 | 33.3% | $0.10 |
| 23 |  The Ultimate Nightmare of Wizards of the Coast® Customer Service | U | $0.73 | 13.6% | $0.10 |
| 24 |  Chicken Egg | C | $0.29 | 33.3% | $0.10 |
| 25 |  Clam-I-Am | C | $0.29 | 33.3% | $0.10 |
| 26 |  Ricochet | U | $0.70 | 13.6% | $0.10 |
| 27 |  Clam Session | C | $0.28 | 33.3% | $0.09 |
| 28 |  Fowl Play | C | $0.28 | 33.3% | $0.09 |
| 29 |  Krazy Kow | C | $0.28 | 33.3% | $0.09 |
| 30 |  Burning Cinder Fury of Crimson Chaos Fire | R | $2.49 | 3.70% | $0.09 |
| 31 |  Handcuffs | U | $0.66 | 13.6% | $0.09 |
| 32 |  Poultrygeist | C | $0.27 | 33.3% | $0.09 |
| 33 |  Team Spirit | C | $0.27 | 33.3% | $0.09 |
| 34 |  Denied! | C | $0.26 | 33.3% | $0.09 |
| 35 |  Prismatic Wardrobe | C | $0.26 | 33.3% | $0.09 |
| 36 |  Free-for-All | R | $2.31 | 3.70% | $0.09 |
| 37 |  Cardboard Carapace | R | $2.29 | 3.70% | $0.08 |
| 38 |  Double Cross | C | $0.25 | 33.3% | $0.08 |
| 39 |  Hurloon Wrangler | C | $0.25 | 33.3% | $0.08 |
| 40 |  Knight of the Hokey Pokey | C | $0.25 | 33.3% | $0.08 |
| 41 |  Double Play | C | $0.24 | 33.3% | $0.08 |
| 42 |  Growth Spurt | C | $0.23 | 33.3% | $0.08 |
| 43 |  Charm School | U | $0.55 | 13.6% | $0.07 |
| 44 |  Lexivore | U | $0.55 | 13.6% | $0.07 |
| 45 |  Free-Range Chicken | C | $0.21 | 33.3% | $0.07 |
| 46 |  Strategy, Schmategy | R | $1.86 | 3.70% | $0.07 |
| 47 |  Miss Demeanor | U | $0.50 | 13.6% | $0.07 |
| 48 |  Mine, Mine, Mine! | R | $1.80 | 3.70% | $0.07 |
| 49 |  Double Dip | C | $0.20 | 33.3% | $0.07 |
| 50 |  Gus | C | $0.20 | 33.3% | $0.07 |
| 51 |  Temp of the Damned | C | $0.20 | 33.3% | $0.07 |
| 52 |  Double Deal | C | $0.19 | 33.3% | $0.06 |
| 53 |  Clay Pigeon | U | $0.44 | 13.6% | $0.06 |
| 54 |  Volrath's Motion Sensor | U | $0.44 | 13.6% | $0.06 |
| 55 |  Double Take | C | $0.18 | 33.3% | $0.06 |
| 56 |  Elvish Impersonators | C | $0.18 | 33.3% | $0.06 |
| 57 |  Common Courtesy | U | $0.42 | 13.6% | $0.06 |
| 58 |  Gerrymandering | U | $0.41 | 13.6% | $0.06 |
| 59 |  Mirror Mirror | R | $1.50 | 3.70% | $0.06 |
| 60 |  Squirrel Farm | R | $1.50 | 3.70% | $0.06 |
| 61 |  Checks and Balances | U | $0.39 | 13.6% | $0.05 |
| 62 |  Jumbo Imp | U | $0.39 | 13.6% | $0.05 |
| 63 |  Get a Life | U | $0.38 | 13.6% | $0.05 |
| 64 |  Hungry Hungry Heifer | U | $0.38 | 13.6% | $0.05 |
| 65 |  Incoming! | R | $1.37 | 3.70% | $0.05 |
| 66 |  Jester's Sombrero | R | $1.34 | 3.70% | $0.05 |
| 67 |  Sorry | U | $0.36 | 13.6% | $0.05 |
| 68 |  Bronze Calendar | U | $0.35 | 13.6% | $0.05 |
| 69 |  Timmy, Power Gamer | R | $1.28 | 3.70% | $0.05 |
| 70 |  Flock of Rabid Sheep | U | $0.34 | 13.6% | $0.05 |
| 71 |  Chicken à la King | R | $1.25 | 3.70% | $0.05 |
| 72 |  Spatula of the Ages | U | $0.32 | 13.6% | $0.04 |
| 73 |  I'm Rubber, You're Glue | R | $1.08 | 3.70% | $0.04 |
| 74 |  Jalum Grifter | R | $1.08 | 3.70% | $0.04 |
| 75 |  Psychic Network | R | $1.07 | 3.70% | $0.04 |
| 76 |  Look at Me, I'm the DCI | R | $1.06 | 3.70% | $0.04 |
| 77 |  Bureaucracy | R | $1.04 | 3.70% | $0.04 |
| 78 |  Once More with Feeling | R | $0.91 | 3.70% | $0.03 |
| 79 |  Spark Fiend | R | $0.79 | 3.70% | $0.03 |
| 80 |  Giant Fan | R | $0.72 | 3.70% | $0.03 |
| 81 |  Ow | R | $0.71 | 3.70% | $0.03 |
| 82 |  Landfill | R | $0.56 | 3.70% | $0.02 |
| 83 |  Island | L | $11.23 | 0% | $0.00 |
| 84 |  Swamp | L | $10.37 | 0% | $0.00 |
| 85 |  Forest | L | $9.53 | 0% | $0.00 |
| 86 |  Mountain | L | $9.38 | 0% | $0.00 |
| 87 |  Plains | L | $6.84 | 0% | $0.00 |